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Greater Manchester Health and Economic Impact Assessment study

Publication date: 

31 Jul 2018



David Dajnak, Heather Walton, James David Smith and Sean Beevers

Publication type: 



IPPR North commissioned Kings College London (King’s) to produce a health and economic Impact assessment associated with current and future pollution levels in Greater Manchester region. In this study, King’s combined the relationships between Defra’s Air Quality modelling concentrations and health outcomes for each local authority in Greater Manchester. King’s has previously carried out similar studies for London but to our knowledge this is the first time that the new health impact recommendations (COMEAP, 2017) have been applied in practice in a full impact pathway approach in a large area. Mortality impact (long –term exposure) Taking into account the UK Government’s projected future changes in air pollution concentrations from 2011 to 2030, the population would still be losing between 0.6 to 1.6 million life years as a result of air pollution changes in Greater Manchester (a life year is one person living for one year). This can also be represented as a loss in life expectancy from birth in 2011 of around 2 to 6 months. The population in Greater Manchester would gain around 930,000 life years over a lifetime if air pollution concentrations improved as projected, compared with remaining at 2011 concentrations. This can also be represented as an improvement in average life expectancy from birth in 2011 of around 3.5 months. The report provides figures for both PM2.5 and NO2 separately but then uses one or the other as
the best indicator pollutant rather than adding results together to avoid overestimation (details in the report below). Economic costs. Despite the projected future improvements in air pollution concentrations from 2011 to 2030, the annualised economic health impact costs between 2011 and 2030 are still between £0.3 - £1bn. The monetary benefits of improvements to future anthropogenic PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations, compared with 2011 concentrations remaining unchanged, has been estimated to be up to £0.5 billion on average/year (at 2014 prices). Mortality burden (long –term exposure) Greater Manchester’s total mortality burden from anthropogenic PM2.5 for the year 2011 is estimated to be equivalent to 1,459 attributable deaths mostly at older ages as is typical the ages for deaths in the general population. Limitations The main report presents a wider range of uncertainty around the results for the mortality burden, mortality impacts and economic costs than the figures shown here. There will be further impacts from ozone concentrations and on effects of all pollutants on illness other than deaths but these were not assessed in this study.